The Fourth Industrial Revolution: From Prediction to Reality

In 2016, Renovo explored the emerging 'new concept' of the Fourth Industrial Revolution, drawing on research by the World Economic Forum (WEF).

Planning Change In The Workplace: The Fourth Industrial Revolution

The WEF’s research was aimed at businesses owners and policymakers with strategies to address the predicted disruptions of the 4^th industrial revolution, highlighting the growing concerns about the rapid advancements in AI, robotics, nanotechnology, 3D printing, and biotechnology, and the impact these developments were expected to have on industries and businesses worldwide. Little did we know how much of an impact this would have on the way we live today, whether it be asking Alexa to add bananas to your shopping list or transferring cryptocurrencies using blockchain technology.

Given the Fourth Industrial Revolution's critical influence on business operations in 2024, the World Economic Forum, from which we originally sourced our data, has since expanded to include a specialised division called the 'Centre for the Fourth Revolution.', with centres in 19 different countries, forming the start of a much-needed global network to better understand and shape technological change.

As we reflect on the predictions made nearly a decade ago, it’s interesting to reassess how accurately these forecasts were and how the technological landscape has evolved.

Automation, AI, and Robotics

Back in 2016, the WEF projected that automation, and AI would lead to the displacement of up to 7.1 million jobs by 2020, especially in white-collar and administrative roles. At the same time, around 2.1 million new jobs were expected to be created in tech-driven fields like computing, mathematics, and engineering. 

Fast forward to 2024, and while automation and AI have transformed many industries, the actual impact on jobs has been more complex than originally predicted. AI-driven automation has reduced the need for human labour in repetitive roles, particularly in sectors such as manufacturing and logistics. Technologies like robotic process automation (RPA), chatbots, and AI-driven customer service systems have made administrative roles increasingly obsolete, confirming the predictions of job displacement.

However, the feared mass job losses haven’t materialised in the way it was predicted. The rise of the gig economy (driven by platforms such as Uber & Deliveroo) have created new kinds of employment, which was not heavily emphasised in the 2016 predictions. The COVID-19 pandemic accelerated the adoption of remote work, reshaping office-based work far more than automation alone ever could have, making it clear that even the most thorough forecasts can’t anticipate the future.

Internet of Things (IoT) and 3D Printing

In 2016, we believed technologies such as the Internet of Things (IoT) and 3D printing would be critical drivers of change. IoT was expected to connect billions of devices across industries, resulting in massive data collection and analytics, while 3D printing was predicted to revolutionise manufacturing with on-demand production.

In 2024, we’ve seen IoT multiply, especially in manufacturing, healthcare, and smart cities. IoT devices are now used to track supply chains, monitor patient health, and manage energy in smart grids, creating efficiency on an unprecedented scale.

3D printing, on the other hand, has made significant strides, particularly in specialised industries such as aerospace and healthcare. However, it's anticipated role in mass manufacturing has been slower to take off. Scalability issues, high costs, and material limitations continue to hamper its widespread adoption, preventing it from reaching the revolutionary heights we expected.

Workforce Dynamics

In 2016, the WEF predicted that the future workforce would require reskilling to cope with technological advancements. A high demand for ‘futureproofing’ in fields like AI, data science, and cybersecurity was expected to rise, while traditional jobs, especially in administration, were expected to decline.

In today's market, the demand for tech-related jobs has exploded, however the skills gap remains a challenge. Many economies are struggling to train workers fast enough to meet the demand in certain fields. This has led to thousands of unfilled positions.

One unpredicted development has been the rise of remote work, accelerated by the pandemic. This shift has transformed the nature of work, allowing companies to tap into a global talent pool unrestricted by geographical boundaries. While remote work was not a central focus of the 2016 predictions, it has proven to be a major disruptor in the global workforce dynamic.

Social and Economic Impacts & Inequality and Ethical Dilemmas

The 2016 WEF report also warned about the inequality driven by job displacement and the ethical implications of the 4^th industrial revolution. The WEF stated that without immediate action, growing unemployment and inequality could destabilise economies and decrease consumer bases.

While the Fourth Industrial Revolution has created billions of pounds, it has also widened the gap between those with access to advanced skills and technology and those without. Automation and AI have massively benefited high-skilled workers, leaving lower-skilled workers at risk of being marginalised, particularly in developing economies where access to education and technology remains limited.

Ethical concerns have also grown. While some governments have implemented some early stage regulations, the rapid pace of technological change continues to outpace the development of effective legal frameworks. The issues of fairness, accountability, and transparency are now more front of mind than ever before.

Conclusion

Looking back, it’s clear that many of the predictions from 2016 have proven accurate. Automation, AI, and IoT have transformed industries, though the scale of job displacement has been impacted by the rise of new employment models and the unexpected acceleration of remote working.

However, the challenges remain, particularly the widening inequality gap and the growing ethical concerns around AI. As the Fourth Industrial Revolution progresses, it is crucial that businesses, governments, and organisations stay adaptable, invest in education, and proactively address the social and ethical implications of these technologies. How society handles these challenges will determine the trajectory of the fourth industrial revolution, and its impact on the future.